Independent research study — not client work
VerifiedRS-03 • Policing and accountability • checked 4 September 2026
Both audit reports were downloaded and read. The study reports what the oversight bodies themselves concluded, and does not extend those conclusions into a general claim that predictive policing does or does not work.
Section 01
What did official oversight bodies conclude about predictive-policing programmes they were asked to audit?
Two city oversight offices audited person-based predictive policing and both found the programmes poorly controlled rather than proven. Chicago's Inspector General found the police department's risk scores unreliable and the programme was decommissioned on 1 November 2019; the Los Angeles Inspector General found significant inconsistencies in how the Chronic Offender programme was run and cautioned against drawing strong conclusions from the crime statistics.
Section 02
Section 03
Download each report as published by the oversight body and read the executive summary and findings sections in the PDF.
Quote the auditors' own characterisations rather than campaign summaries of them.
Keep separate what the auditors found from what they merely recommended.
Section 04
The Chicago Police Department used risk models known as the Strategic Subject List and the Crime and Victimization Risk Model, designed to predict the likelihood a person would become a 'party to violence'. CPD told the Inspector General in August 2019 that it intended to decommission the programme and did so on 1 November 2019.
Scores were not updated regularly — Strategic Subject List scores had not been updated since August 2016 until the successor model launched on 9 January 2019 — and the office observed missing age-at-latest-arrest values, criminal activity recorded after death dates, and conflicting weapons-offence data.
Of the 398,684 individuals with a score in version 5 of the model, 16.3% (64,947) were identified as confirmed gang members, yet one district commander estimated about 95% were gang members or associates and an intelligence officer stated everyone with a score was a gang member. Training material had not been updated past version 3.
The review of Operation LASER's Chronic Offender component identified significant inconsistencies in selection and documentation practices from Area to Area, related to a lack of centralised oversight and formalised protocols, and found that the majority of people designated as Chronic Offenders had few, if any, actual contacts with police.
The report notes that overall targeted crime decreased as police presence increased, but that results broken down by quarter and Area were more mixed, and that given the difficulty of isolating the impact of these programmes the office cautions against drawing strong conclusions from the available statistics.
Section 05
City of Chicago Office of Inspector General (OIG File #18-0106) • 23 January 2020
PDF downloaded and read; figures in findings F1–F3 are taken from its background and findings sections.
Open sourceLos Angeles Police Commission, Office of the Inspector General (BPC #19-0072) • Transmitted 8 March 2019; report dated 12 March 2019
PDF downloaded and read; findings F4 and F5 come from its introduction and executive summary.
Open sourceThe Hague District Court • 5 February 2020
Listed for context only. The case record was confirmed reachable but the judgment was not read in full, so no finding on this page rests on it.
Open sourceSection 06
| Query | Engine | Logged | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Office of Inspector General Strategic Subject List advisory 2020 | Web search | 4 September 2026 | Located the advisory PDF and its publication page dated 23 January 2020. |
| LAPD Inspector General review data-driven policing LASER PredPol 2019 | Web search | 4 September 2026 | Located BPC #19-0072 on the Police Commission's own site. |
| Download and read both audit PDFs | Direct fetch | 4 September 2026 | Both files retrieved and converted to text; every figure quoted on this page was read in the report itself. |
Section 07